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Retirement Income Explorer.
How much could savings pay each month, and how often would a plan break? Compare the withdrawal strategies the research tested, on 2,000 reshuffled 40-year market histories and seven stress cases.
| Strategy | Typicalper month | Bad history1 in 10 | Income rangedark: bad history · light: typical | Ends below startreal value | Dips below 70%at any point | Runs dry |
|---|
How each strategy pays
Base pay: a fixed share of the starting value each year, paid monthly and raised with inflation. Bonus pay: at each year-end, gains above a threshold move into a T-bill bucket that pays out over several years. Guardrail: if the account falls below a set share of its inflation-adjusted start, base pay is cut until it recovers. The strategies differ in their funds and in those settings; the reference rows use the same rules at a 4% base.
Source: anthony-firn/retirement-research, results/printer_validate.json, from printer/validate.py. Read about the method and its limits.